Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.93 – 25.38

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.6 ±19.3

10356Capitech

Provisional

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX -2.24Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 113.31Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8066WOLF ARMY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 5.86Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.7 ±18.2

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX -9.37Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 25.76Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9614ROBOSSAUROS

Provisional

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 8.99Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10356, 7563, 8066

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10356, 7563, 8066

Auto

12.9 11%

Teleop

66.0 56%

Endgame

38.5 33%

Strengths

· 7563 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11105, 9486, 9614

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11105, 9486, 9614

Auto

13.6 62%

Teleop

17.8 81%

Endgame

-9.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.9pts

Blue projected score25.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.6
Score range: 7–135
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 102.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.6Season APEX129.7

12.9Auto13.6

66Teleop17.8

38.5Endgame-9.5

70Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	12
teleop	80	6
endgame	47	2
foul	0	0
total	155	20

Result

Final score

155 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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