Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.5 – 60.6

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.9 ±16.4

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 65.67Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 73.12Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9614ROBOSSAUROS

Provisional

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 6.71Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.4 ±13.9

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 46.58Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 1.03Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 12.99Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10291, 7565, 9614

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10291, 7565, 9614

Auto

37.4 27%

Teleop

70.7 51%

Endgame

29.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9484, 7033, 9219

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9484, 7033, 9219

Auto

23.2 42%

Teleop

24.0 44%

Endgame

7.6 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145.5pts

Blue projected score60.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.9
Score range: 43–164
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 100.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.9Season APEX254.4

37.4Auto23.2

70.7Teleop24

29.3Endgame7.6

23Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	21
teleop	95	57
endgame	32	31
foul	0	10
total	176	119

Result

Final score

176 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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