Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.89 – 17.33

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.3 ±16.5

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 78.5Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 55.3Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9050Tucanus

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 39.09Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.5 ±17.7

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 24.34Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9302PARATECH FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 3.44Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX -10.45Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9047, 9458, 9050

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9047, 9458, 9050

Auto

31.5 19%

Teleop

84.8 51%

Endgame

49.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9066, 9302, 11105

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9066, 9302, 11105

Auto

12.3 78%

Teleop

14.3 91%

Endgame

-10.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score172.9pts

Blue projected score17.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.6
Score range: -1–191
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 99.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.3Season APEX320.5

31.5Auto12.3

84.8Teleop14.3

49.6Endgame-10.8

0Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	6
teleop	88	23
endgame	57	0
foul	0	0
total	182	29

Result

Final score

182 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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