Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.86 – 26.86

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.4 ±17.7

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 225.83Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9195ProdiXy

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 8.68Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9045North Lions SESI/SENAI

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 15.35Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.1 ±17.3

10263Temari Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.8Event APEX 17.51Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 7.48Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 1.87Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1156, 9195, 9045

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1156, 9195, 9045

Auto

45.9 19%

Teleop

144.9 59%

Endgame

54.2 22%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10263, 10345, 9460

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.9 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10263, 10345, 9460

Auto

10.5 37%

Teleop

4.4 16%

Endgame

13.2 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.9pts

Blue projected score26.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 223
Score range: 9–268
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 98.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.4Season APEX156.1

45.9Auto10.5

144.9Teleop4.4

54.2Endgame13.2

47Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	14
teleop	143	44
endgame	30	12
foul	30	0
total	265	70

Result

Final score

265 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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