Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.02 – 77.04

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.3 ±19.3

9046SESI SENAI BBTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 11.96Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 83.05Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10356Capitech

Provisional

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX -3.99Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.8 ±17.7

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 40.72Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 1.28Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10917M.A.P.L.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 35.04Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9046, 9175, 10356

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9046, 9175, 10356

Auto

17.9 18%

Teleop

53.2 55%

Endgame

26.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9169, 9485, 10917

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9169, 9485, 10917

Auto

12.1 16%

Teleop

39.6 52%

Endgame

24.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91pts

Blue projected score77pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14
Score range: 59–109
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 98.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.3Season APEX186.8

17.9Auto12.1

53.2Teleop39.6

26.1Endgame24.7

37Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	29
teleop	56	62
endgame	32	24
foul	0	0
total	99	115

Result

Final score

99 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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