Qualification · Qualification 49
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
41.28 – 82.33
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
64 – 49
Prediction missed · off by 28 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.5 ±15
Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 14.97Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 0.45Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 25.86Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.6 ±16.8
Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 23.58Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
10295FOREST GUARDIANS
Provisional
Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 9.25Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 49.5Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7459, 9461, 9486
33
/ 100 compatProjected
41.3 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 7459, 9461, 9486
Auto
12.4 32%
Teleop
23.7 61%
Endgame
2.9 7%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9611, 10295, 9200
53
/ 100 compatProjected
82.3 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 9611, 10295, 9200
Auto
17.9 25%
Teleop
43.1 60%
Endgame
11.4 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.57
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score41.3pts
Blue projected score82.3pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 25%, blue 28%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -41
- Score range
- 23–100
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
159.5Season APEX227.6
12.4Auto17.9
23.7Teleop43.1
2.9Endgame11.4
37Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 17 |
| teleop | 29 | 13 |
| endgame | 23 | 19 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 64 | 49 |
Result
Final score
64 – 49
Prediction missed · off by 28 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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