Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.36 – 104.22

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.9 ±17.7

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 0.48Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 33.69Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9617Metal Knight

Provisional

Season APEX 42Event APEX 23.19Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.6 ±13.9

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 60.95Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 31.83Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 11.44Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10345, 9169, 9617

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10345, 9169, 9617

Auto

6.2 10%

Teleop

33.2 53%

Endgame

23.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9200, 9486, 7033

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9200, 9486, 7033

Auto

10.4 12%

Teleop

52.4 59%

Endgame

26.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.4pts

Blue projected score104.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.9
Score range: 39–122
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 98.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.9Season APEX264.6

6.2Auto10.4

33.2Teleop52.4

23.1Endgame26.7

0Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	12
teleop	29	30
endgame	11	11
foul	20	0
total	87	53

Result

Final score

87 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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