Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.4 – 152.92

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±17.2

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 52.02Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -0.87Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10295FOREST GUARDIANS

Provisional

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 8.25Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.8 ±16.4

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 83.7Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 58.2Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10297PANTANALBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 11.02Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9110, 9461, 10295

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9110, 9461, 10295

Auto

29.4 55%

Teleop

18.5 35%

Endgame

5.6 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9175, 10291, 10297

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9175, 10291, 10297

Auto

35.2 23%

Teleop

67.2 45%

Endgame

47.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.77 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.4pts

Blue projected score152.9pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.5
Score range: 41–171
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 97.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185Season APEX474.8

29.4Auto35.2

18.5Teleop67.2

5.6Endgame47.5

48Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	38
teleop	52	103
endgame	19	48
foul	0	0
total	83	189

Result

Final score

83 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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