Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

57.45 – 50.33

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±17.2

9614ROBOSSAUROS

Provisional

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX -2.7Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 60.55Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX -0.4Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.6 ±15.8

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 22.09Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 32.33Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9045North Lions SESI/SENAI

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -4.09Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9614, 9047, 7033

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9614, 9047, 7033

Auto

17.9 34%

Teleop

18.5 35%

Endgame

17.0 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9459, 7567, 9045

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9459, 7567, 9045

Auto

11.0 22%

Teleop

15.0 30%

Endgame

23.5 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.5pts

Blue projected score50.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.1
Score range: 33–74
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 96.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.2Season APEX276.6

17.9Auto11

18.5Teleop15

17Endgame23.5

94Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	7
teleop	41	46
endgame	20	23
foul	30	30
total	120	106

Result

Final score

120 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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