Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.5 – 51.45

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.8 ±17.7

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX -12.16Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10917M.A.P.L.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 37.85Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 60.81Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 117.2 ±20.5

10263Temari Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.8Event APEX 26.96Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 19.2Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9048SESI/SENAI P0T1BAT (Potibat)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 5.29Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11105, 10917, 9199

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11105, 10917, 9199

Auto

15.4 19%

Teleop

51.2 64%

Endgame

12.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10263, 9219, 9048

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10263, 9219, 9048

Auto

5.0 10%

Teleop

29.6 60%

Endgame

14.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.5pts

Blue projected score51.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.1
Score range: 34–104
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 96.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.8Season APEX117.2

15.4Auto5

51.2Teleop29.6

12.9Endgame14.5

179Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	15
teleop	57	25
endgame	4	17
foul	0	0
total	97	57

Result

Final score

97 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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