Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.43 – 93.27

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±16.4

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 57.06Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9302PARATECH FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 2.62Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 71.75Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.2 ±16.3

9166TecRobot

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 10.26Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 63.51Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7459Taubatexas Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 19.5Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1860, 9302, 7565

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1860, 9302, 7565

Auto

39.0 31%

Teleop

61.0 48%

Endgame

27.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9166, 10291, 7459

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9166, 10291, 7459

Auto

33.7 45%

Teleop

29.2 39%

Endgame

12.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.4pts

Blue projected score93.3pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.2
Score range: 76–148
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 96.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.8Season APEX357.2

39Auto33.7

61Teleop29.2

27.5Endgame12.1

120Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	33
teleop	72	18
endgame	22	21
foul	0	0
total	141	72

Result

Final score

141 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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