Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.39 – 86.42

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.1 ±17.7

10297PANTANALBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 11.19Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 15.68Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 43.52Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.5 ±12.9

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -8.45Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 10.41Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 84.46Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10297, 9066, 9486

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10297, 9066, 9486

Auto

8.9 13%

Teleop

56.3 80%

Endgame

5.4 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9485, 9460, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9485, 9460, 9175

Auto

15.0 17%

Teleop

42.4 49%

Endgame

29.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.4pts

Blue projected score86.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16
Score range: 53–103
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 96.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.1Season APEX288.5

8.9Auto15

56.3Teleop42.4

5.4Endgame29.5

75Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	9	67
endgame	28	24
foul	5	5
total	54	111

Result

Final score

54 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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