Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.34 – 37.24

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.5 ±16.5

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 47.17Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 87.71Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9164Tech Vikings

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 22.46Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.9 ±20

9617Metal Knight

Provisional

Season APEX 42Event APEX 30.24Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10356Capitech

Provisional

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX -0.87Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 7.87Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9458, 9085, 9164

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9458, 9085, 9164

Auto

12.1 8%

Teleop

92.9 60%

Endgame

48.6 32%

Strengths

· 9085 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9617, 10356, 9461

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9617, 10356, 9461

Auto

12.4 29%

Teleop

27.3 64%

Endgame

2.8 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.3pts

Blue projected score37.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.1
Score range: 20–174
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 96.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.5Season APEX134.9

12.1Auto12.4

92.9Teleop27.3

48.6Endgame2.8

53Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	0
teleop	114	9
endgame	55	10
foul	0	0
total	199	19

Result

Final score

199 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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