Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.5 – 90.69

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 164

Prediction missed · off by 59.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.5 ±13.3

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 37.11Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 18.25Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 44.14Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±16.9

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 102.38Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -10.67Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10295FOREST GUARDIANS

Provisional

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX -1.02Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9484, 9611, 9110

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9484, 9611, 9110

Auto

32.8 36%

Teleop

46.5 51%

Endgame

12.7 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7563, 10345, 10295

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7563, 10345, 10295

Auto

15.4 18%

Teleop

44.5 52%

Endgame

25.4 30%

Strengths

· 7563 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.5pts

Blue projected score90.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 74–117
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 94.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.5Season APEX255

32.8Auto15.4

46.5Teleop44.5

12.7Endgame25.4

75Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	35
teleop	67	78
endgame	27	46
foul	0	5
total	146	164

Result

Final score

146 – 164

Prediction missed · off by 59.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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