Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

7.04 – 28.38

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 17

Prediction missed · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±17

9049SESI SENAI STEAMPUNK MONKEY FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX -0.88Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8882INFINITY BR

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 3.6Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 4.32Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 103.9 ±20.5

9614ROBOSSAUROS

Provisional

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 4.67Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 17.02Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8066WOLF ARMY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 6.69Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9049, 8882, 9169

/ 100 compat

Projected

7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9049, 8882, 9169

Auto

-2.6 0%

Teleop

15.7 100%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9614, 9219, 8066

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9614, 9219, 8066

Auto

17.0 55%

Teleop

17.7 57%

Endgame

-3.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score7pts

Blue projected score28.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.3
Score range: -10–45
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 90 vs event baseline 96.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.6Season APEX103.9

-2.6Auto17

15.7Teleop17.7

-1.6Endgame-3.8

116Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	9
teleop	30	4
endgame	35	4
foul	0	0
total	73	17

Result

Final score

73 – 17

Prediction missed · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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