Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.85 – 92.27

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.2 ±16.1

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 35.44Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9305MonT

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 3.64Rank 47Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 161.77Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.5 ±19.3

9048SESI/SENAI P0T1BAT (Potibat)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -7.15Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 69.16Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10917M.A.P.L.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 30.26Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10291, 9305, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10291, 9305, 1156

Auto

38.6 20%

Teleop

99.9 52%

Endgame

52.2 27%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9048, 7565, 10917

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9048, 7565, 10917

Auto

26.8 30%

Teleop

44.7 50%

Endgame

17.8 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200.9pts

Blue projected score92.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.6
Score range: 76–217
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 91.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.2Season APEX289.5

38.6Auto26.8

99.9Teleop44.7

52.2Endgame17.8

161Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	9
teleop	179	73
endgame	65	49
foul	0	0
total	328	131

Result

Final score

328 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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