Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.34 – 80.62

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.6 ±15.8

9166TecRobot

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 5.13Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 18Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 42.21Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.7 ±15.4

9045North Lions SESI/SENAI

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -4.92Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 85.75Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX -0.21Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9166, 9459, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9166, 9459, 9200

Auto

12.7 20%

Teleop

50.7 79%

Endgame

0.4 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9045, 9175, 11105

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9045, 9175, 11105

Auto

14.1 19%

Teleop

58.1 79%

Endgame

1.3 2%

Strengths

· 9175 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.3pts

Blue projected score80.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.3
Score range: 48–98
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 91.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.6Season APEX283.7

12.7Auto14.1

50.7Teleop58.1

0.4Endgame1.3

127Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	30
teleop	17	30
endgame	37	12
foul	15	0
total	100	72

Result

Final score

100 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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