Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.17 – 78.98

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.2 ±17.2

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 72.78Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 17.2Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10356Capitech

Provisional

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 4.19Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.4 ±17.7

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 55.45Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7459Taubatexas Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 16.18Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9302PARATECH FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 7.35Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9085, 7033, 10356

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9085, 7033, 10356

Auto

9.4 10%

Teleop

50.1 54%

Endgame

33.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9199, 7459, 9302

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9199, 7459, 9302

Auto

20.1 26%

Teleop

42.3 55%

Endgame

15.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.2pts

Blue projected score79pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.2
Score range: 58–115
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 114.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.2Season APEX147.4

9.4Auto20.1

50.1Teleop42.3

33.1Endgame15.2

91Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	21
teleop	64	38
endgame	38	21
foul	0	5
total	112	85

Result

Final score

112 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree