Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.77 – 59.02

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±17.7

9617Metal Knight

Provisional

Season APEX 42Event APEX 51.78Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 23.85Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -0.86Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±17.2

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 10.03Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 52.08Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9195ProdiXy

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -3.09Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9617, 9066, 9485

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9617, 9066, 9485

Auto

13.8 18%

Teleop

53.7 69%

Endgame

10.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9461, 9199, 9195

/ 100 compat

Projected

59 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9461, 9199, 9195

Auto

16.4 26%

Teleop

31.9 51%

Endgame

14.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.8pts

Blue projected score59pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.7
Score range: 42–92
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 93.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.5Season APEX182.9

13.8Auto16.4

53.7Teleop31.9

10.6Endgame14.2

46Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	18
teleop	19	54
endgame	10	11
foul	0	0
total	33	83

Result

Final score

33 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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