Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.29 – 77.08

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 9.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.4 ±14.5

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 10.84Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7459Taubatexas Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 21.49Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 49.96Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.1 ±20

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 54.25Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10263Temari Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.8Event APEX 31.64Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9046SESI SENAI BBTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -8.81Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7033, 7459, 9458

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7033, 7459, 9458

Auto

5.6 8%

Teleop

49.1 66%

Endgame

19.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9110, 10263, 9046

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9110, 10263, 9046

Auto

17.9 23%

Teleop

33.2 43%

Endgame

25.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.3pts

Blue projected score77.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.2
Score range: 60–99
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 93.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.4Season APEX180.1

5.6Auto17.9

49.1Teleop33.2

19.3Endgame25.5

73Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	33
teleop	21	22
endgame	21	34
foul	15	0
total	75	89

Result

Final score

75 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 9.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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