Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.83 – 41.51

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.4 ±12.9

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 85.39Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 36.81Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 22.63Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±20

9302PARATECH FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 2.08Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10297PANTANALBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 1.24Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9162ALL MIGHT

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 38.19Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7563, 9486, 9484

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7563, 9486, 9484

Auto

34.7 25%

Teleop

62.7 44%

Endgame

43.7 31%

Strengths

· 7563 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9302, 10297, 9162

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9302, 10297, 9162

Auto

-2.6 0%

Teleop

13.4 30%

Endgame

33.4 76%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144.8pts

Blue projected score41.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.3
Score range: 26–161
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 91.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.4Season APEX147.5

34.7Auto-2.6

62.7Teleop13.4

43.7Endgame33.4

49Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	15
teleop	151	33
endgame	42	14
foul	0	0
total	229	62

Result

Final score

229 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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