Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.44 – 155.19

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.5 ±19

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 17.14Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9164Tech Vikings

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 23.08Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9163HYDRA

Provisional

Season APEX 32.4Event APEX -24.78Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.6 ±17.2

10295FOREST GUARDIANS

Provisional

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 4.82Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 82.01Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 68.36Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9460, 9164, 9163

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9460, 9164, 9163

Auto

20.6 92%

Teleop

-3.3 0%

Endgame

5.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10295, 9085, 9047

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10295, 9085, 9047

Auto

29.9 19%

Teleop

73.9 47%

Endgame

52.0 33%

Strengths

· 9085 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score15.4pts

Blue projected score155.2pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.7
Score range: -1–171
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 91.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.5Season APEX225.6

20.6Auto29.9

-3.3Teleop73.9

5Endgame52

0Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	22
teleop	10	95
endgame	17	34
foul	0	15
total	35	166

Result

Final score

35 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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