Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.79 – 188.81

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

9 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.1 ±17.7

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 10.4Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10356Capitech

Provisional

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 10.22Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 31.17Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.5 ±16

9050Tucanus

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 66.8Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 55.49Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 66.52Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10345, 10356, 9611

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10345, 10356, 9611

Auto

5.0 12%

Teleop

29.9 72%

Endgame

6.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9050, 7567, 1860

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9050, 7567, 1860

Auto

32.6 17%

Teleop

97.2 50%

Endgame

65.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.8pts

Blue projected score188.8pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137
Score range: 36–205
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 91.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132.1Season APEX336.5

5Auto32.6

29.9Teleop97.2

6.4Endgame65.9

48Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	28
teleop	1	68
endgame	2	53
foul	0	0
total	9	149

Result

Final score

9 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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