Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.57 – 69.92

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

12 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.8 ±19.3

9045North Lions SESI/SENAI

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -10.05Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10263Temari Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.8Event APEX 37.21Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 15.41Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.9 ±19.4

9049SESI SENAI STEAMPUNK MONKEY FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 4.22Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9617Metal Knight

Provisional

Season APEX 42Event APEX 45.4Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 20.3Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9045, 10263, 9485

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9045, 10263, 9485

Auto

1.3 3%

Teleop

27.4 70%

Endgame

10.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9049, 9617, 10291

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9049, 9617, 10291

Auto

7.9 14%

Teleop

29.4 53%

Endgame

18.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42.6pts

Blue projected score69.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.3
Score range: 26–87
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 94.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.8Season APEX375.9

1.3Auto7.9

27.4Teleop29.4

10.3Endgame18.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	36
teleop	4	35
endgame	8	25
foul	0	0
total	12	96

Result

Final score

12 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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