Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.11 – 110.35

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.6 ±11.7

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 153.2Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 1.94Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -3.03Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.9 ±16.4

9046SESI SENAI BBTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -1.25Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 19.02Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 92.58Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1156, 9460, 9461

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1156, 9460, 9461

Auto

25.4 17%

Teleop

90.6 59%

Endgame

37.0 24%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9046, 7033, 7563

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9046, 7033, 7563

Auto

26.4 25%

Teleop

50.1 47%

Endgame

29.1 28%

Strengths

· 7563 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.1pts

Blue projected score110.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.8
Score range: 93–169
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 93.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.6Season APEX284.9

25.4Auto26.4

90.6Teleop50.1

37Endgame29.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	11
teleop	122	31
endgame	28	49
foul	0	0
total	208	91

Result

Final score

208 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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