Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.96 – 75.84

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.6 ±19.8

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 11.35Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9163HYDRA

Provisional

Season APEX 32.4Event APEX -17.75Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9050Tucanus

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 77.36Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.2 ±19.8

7459Taubatexas Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 35.22Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10297PANTANALBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 19.25Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9164Tech Vikings

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 21.37Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11105, 9163, 9050

/ 100 compat

Projected

71 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11105, 9163, 9050

Auto

21.7 33%

Teleop

30.3 47%

Endgame

13.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7459, 10297, 9164

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7459, 10297, 9164

Auto

6.1 8%

Teleop

49.0 66%

Endgame

19.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71pts

Blue projected score75.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.9
Score range: 54–93
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 97.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.6Season APEX133.2

21.7Auto6.1

30.3Teleop49

13Endgame19.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	10
teleop	1	8
endgame	5	22
foul	0	0
total	21	40

Result

Final score

21 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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