Qualification · Qualification 19
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
0 – 122.46
16%84%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
40 – 172
Prediction correct · off by 44.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.6 ±18.8
9305MonT
Provisional
Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -9.8Rank 47Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 41.6Event APEX -7.32Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 3.89Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.2 ±13.3
Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 41.63Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 25.04Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 55.79Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9305, 9166, 9169
8
/ 100 compatProjected
-13.2 pts
~0.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 9305, 9166, 9169
Auto
5.0 0%
Teleop
-12.6 100%
Endgame
-2.1 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 7567, 9611, 9085
75
/ 100 compatProjected
122.5 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 7567, 9611, 9085
Auto
11.0 10%
Teleop
56.1 49%
Endgame
47.0 41%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.16
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score-13.2pts
Blue projected score122.5pts
Red win probability16%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 17%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -122.5
- Score range
- -17–139
- Upset likelihood
- 16%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
154.6Season APEX310.2
5Auto11
-12.6Teleop56.1
-2.1Endgame47
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 26 |
| teleop | 26 | 102 |
| endgame | 2 | 44 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 40 | 172 |
Result
Final score
40 – 172
Prediction correct · off by 44.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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