Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.82 – 103.7

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.4 ±19.7

10295FOREST GUARDIANS

Provisional

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX -13.46Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8066WOLF ARMY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 6.57Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 23.71Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341 ±13.3

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 26.53Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 28.54Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 48.63Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10295, 8066, 9484

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10295, 8066, 9484

Auto

11.6 76%

Teleop

1.3 8%

Endgame

2.4 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9200, 9458, 1860

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9200, 9458, 1860

Auto

34.4 33%

Teleop

53.0 50%

Endgame

18.4 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score16.8pts

Blue projected score103.7pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.9
Score range: 0–121
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 96.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.4Season APEX341

11.6Auto34.4

1.3Teleop53

2.4Endgame18.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	23
teleop	8	93
endgame	13	32
foul	0	10
total	42	158

Result

Final score

42 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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