Qualification · Qualification 17
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
98.66 – 52.52
64%36%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
176 – 99
Prediction correct · off by 61.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.6 ±13.5
Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 49.86Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 55.81Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -7.01Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.1 ±17.2
Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 26.17Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 14.88Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
10356Capitech
Provisional
Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 11.47Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9047, 9175, 10345
71
/ 100 compatProjected
98.7 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 9047, 9175, 10345
Auto
26.4 28%
Teleop
51.3 54%
Endgame
17.9 19%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9162, 9199, 10356
45
/ 100 compatProjected
52.5 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 9162, 9199, 10356
Auto
3.2 6%
Teleop
28.1 53%
Endgame
21.6 41%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.03
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score98.7pts
Blue projected score52.5pts
Red win probability64%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 27%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 46.1
- Score range
- 36–116
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
327.6Season APEX176.1
26.4Auto3.2
51.3Teleop28.1
17.9Endgame21.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 9 |
| teleop | 91 | 55 |
| endgame | 54 | 35 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 176 | 99 |
Result
Final score
176 – 99
Prediction correct · off by 61.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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