Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.81 – 38.23

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 109.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.8 ±19.1

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 98.78Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9617Metal Knight

Provisional

Season APEX 42Event APEX 0.69Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10263Temari Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 35.8Event APEX -0.66Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.7 ±17.3

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 5.18Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9614ROBOSSAUROS

Provisional

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 9.71Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8882INFINITY BR

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 23.34Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1156, 9617, 10263

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1156, 9617, 10263

Auto

23.8 24%

Teleop

47.4 47%

Endgame

29.3 29%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9460, 9614, 8882

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9460, 9614, 8882

Auto

7.0 18%

Teleop

12.1 31%

Endgame

19.6 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.8pts

Blue projected score38.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.6
Score range: 22–115
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 89.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.8Season APEX160.7

23.8Auto7

47.4Teleop12.1

29.3Endgame19.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	5
teleop	181	9
endgame	63	0
foul	0	0
total	293	14

Result

Final score

293 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 109.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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