Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.17 – 112.96

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.4 ±17.3

9050Tucanus

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 85.71Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9045North Lions SESI/SENAI

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -3.41Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 72.87Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.3 ±18.2

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 11.24Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9163HYDRA

Provisional

Season APEX 32.4Event APEX 16.01Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 85.71Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9050, 9045, 7565

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9050, 9045, 7565

Auto

33.2 21%

Teleop

78.7 51%

Endgame

43.1 28%

Strengths

· 9050 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9485, 9163, 9486

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9485, 9163, 9486

Auto

22.4 20%

Teleop

50.9 45%

Endgame

40.6 36%

Strengths

· 9486 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.2pts

Blue projected score113pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.2
Score range: 97–171
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 90.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.4Season APEX130.3

33.2Auto22.4

78.7Teleop50.9

43.1Endgame40.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	9
teleop	84	7
endgame	41	0
foul	0	5
total	147	21

Result

Final score

147 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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