Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.77 – 52.67

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.1 ±14.5

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 3.79Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 5.66Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 16.32Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.9 ±19.4

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 38.28Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9049SESI SENAI STEAMPUNK MONKEY FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX -1.59Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9195ProdiXy

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 15.98Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9611, 11105, 10291

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9611, 11105, 10291

Auto

9.1 38%

Teleop

7.4 31%

Endgame

7.7 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9085, 9049, 9195

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9085, 9049, 9195

Auto

11.6 22%

Teleop

23.9 46%

Endgame

16.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25.8pts

Blue projected score52.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.9
Score range: 10–69
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 90.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.1Season APEX216.9

9.1Auto11.6

7.4Teleop23.9

7.7Endgame16.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	11
teleop	22	49
endgame	0	40
foul	35	0
total	71	100

Result

Final score

71 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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