Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

69.11 – 40.02

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 45 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.2 ±13.5

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 34Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 12.57Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7459Taubatexas Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 22.54Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.7 ±17.3

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 29.21Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -1.76Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9305MonT

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 12.57Rank 47Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9175, 9066, 7459

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9175, 9066, 7459

Auto

20.5 30%

Teleop

29.7 44%

Endgame

17.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9484, 10345, 9305

/ 100 compat

Projected

40 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9484, 10345, 9305

Auto

17.1 43%

Teleop

17.2 43%

Endgame

5.5 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.1pts

Blue projected score40pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.1
Score range: 25–84
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 85.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.2Season APEX244.7

20.5Auto17.1

29.7Teleop17.2

17.1Endgame5.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	9
teleop	110	7
endgame	5	10
foul	5	0
total	145	26

Result

Final score

145 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 45 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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