Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
49.82 – 19.11
59%41%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
62 – 79
Prediction missed · off by 36 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.4 ±17.2
9302PARATECH FRC
Provisional
Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 25.09Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 5.3Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 19.43Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.6 ±14.5
Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 5.14Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 5.3Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 8.67Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9302, 9461, 9458
52
/ 100 compatProjected
49.8 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 9302, 9461, 9458
Auto
11.2 23%
Teleop
21.9 45%
Endgame
15.5 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9459, 9162, 9169
33
/ 100 compatProjected
19.1 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 9459, 9162, 9169
Auto
6.2 32%
Teleop
6.7 34%
Endgame
6.6 34%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.09
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score49.8pts
Blue projected score19.1pts
Red win probability59%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 23%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 30.7
- Score range
- 3–66
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
185.4Season APEX217.6
11.2Auto6.2
21.9Teleop6.7
15.5Endgame6.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 6 |
| teleop | 29 | 45 |
| endgame | 15 | 28 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 62 | 79 |
Result
Final score
62 – 79
Prediction missed · off by 36 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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