Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.57 – 128.38

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 61.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.5 ±16.8

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 19.71Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 20Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9048SESI/SENAI P0T1BAT (Potibat)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 10.86Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176 ±18.8

10356Capitech

Provisional

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 31.83Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 75.43Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9166TecRobot

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 21.12Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9110, 9200, 9048

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9110, 9200, 9048

Auto

6.9 14%

Teleop

27.7 56%

Endgame

14.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10356, 9047, 9166

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10356, 9047, 9166

Auto

30.8 24%

Teleop

61.2 48%

Endgame

34.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.6pts

Blue projected score128.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.8
Score range: 35–144
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 88.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.5Season APEX176

6.9Auto30.8

27.7Teleop61.2

14.6Endgame34.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	16
teleop	61	28
endgame	14	12
foul	5	0
total	102	56

Result

Final score

102 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 61.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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