Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.8 – 105.31

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.2 ±17.5

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 8.07Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9049SESI SENAI STEAMPUNK MONKEY FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 20.26Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 21.47Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.5 ±18.4

9166TecRobot

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 16.19Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10917M.A.P.L.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 36.78Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 52.34Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10345, 9049, 9459

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10345, 9049, 9459

Auto

14.1 31%

Teleop

12.9 28%

Endgame

18.7 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9166, 10917, 9484

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9166, 10917, 9484

Auto

35.2 33%

Teleop

51.3 48%

Endgame

21.1 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.8pts

Blue projected score105.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.5
Score range: 29–126
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 114.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.2Season APEX261.5

14.1Auto35.2

12.9Teleop51.3

18.7Endgame21.1

2Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	36
teleop	8	34
endgame	4	12
foul	0	0
total	18	82

Result

Final score

18 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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