Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.52 – 161.57

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.8 ±12.7

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 81.46Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7190Vancouver Rainstorms

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 17.72Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 114.34Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.9 ±14.9

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 64.48Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 57.89Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6188Sting Robotics

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 39.2Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 610, 7190, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 610, 7190, 9406

Auto

32.6 16%

Teleop

123.3 60%

Endgame

50.9 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9449, 10951, 6188

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9449, 10951, 6188

Auto

22.1 15%

Teleop

91.1 63%

Endgame

32.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score213.5pts

Blue projected score161.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 137–239
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 138.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.8Season APEX313.9

32.6Auto22.1

123.3Teleop91.1

50.9Endgame32.2

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	23
teleop	97	83
endgame	35	53
foul	5	0
total	174	159

Result

Final score

174 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Match videos

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