Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.57 – 264.05

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

386 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.5 ±11

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 140.88Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 41.95Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 147.74Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±11.9

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 135.85Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 24.44Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 103.76Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4421, 5461, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 5461, 3990

Auto

64.0 20%

Teleop

187.8 58%

Endgame

73.0 22%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6766, 6390, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 6390, 4270

Auto

48.9 20%

Teleop

135.8 54%

Endgame

65.7 26%

Strengths

· 6766 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score330.6pts

Blue projected score264.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.5
Score range: 239–356
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.5Season APEX493.7

64Auto48.9

187.8Teleop135.8

73Endgame65.7

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	42
teleop	235	161
endgame	76	100
foul	0	5
total	386	308

Result

Final score

386 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Match videos

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