Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.24 – 107.55

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.3 ±17.5

9719ThunderTech Robotics

Season APEX 50Event APEX 26.76Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 37.56Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 33.92Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±13.4

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 34.07Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 61.17Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 12.31Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9719, 8331, 4627

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9719, 8331, 4627

Auto

25.0 28%

Teleop

29.3 32%

Endgame

36.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9277, 10120, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9277, 10120, 6364

Auto

15.2 14%

Teleop

71.7 67%

Endgame

19.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.2pts

Blue projected score107.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.3
Score range: 74–132
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.3Season APEX374.7

25Auto15.2

29.3Teleop71.7

36.6Endgame19.4

0Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	42
teleop	29	109
endgame	34	3
foul	0	45
total	86	199

Result

Final score

86 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 pts

Match videos

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