Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.16 – 137.36

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±11.9

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 134.69Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 24.49Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 104.98Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.9 ±14.9

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 56.49Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 49.08Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6188Sting Robotics

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 31.79Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6766, 6390, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 6390, 4270

Auto

49.9 20%

Teleop

129.5 52%

Endgame

68.0 27%

Strengths

· 6766 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9449, 10951, 6188

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9449, 10951, 6188

Auto

23.0 18%

Teleop

79.8 62%

Endgame

25.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score264.2pts

Blue projected score137.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.8
Score range: 113–288
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 133.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.7Season APEX313.9

49.9Auto23

129.5Teleop79.8

68Endgame25.9

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	19
teleop	151	78
endgame	57	68
foul	5	55
total	255	220

Result

Final score

255 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Match videos

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