Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.13 – 78.42

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.5 ±11

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 140.68Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 38.39Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 146.06Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±17.1

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 14.04Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11149Blue Lightning

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 18.86Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7688Creekside Robotics

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 45.52Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4421, 5461, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 5461, 3990

Auto

63.0 20%

Teleop

180.4 57%

Endgame

72.5 23%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7334, 11149, 7688

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7334, 11149, 7688

Auto

21.3 29%

Teleop

28.5 38%

Endgame

24.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score325.1pts

Blue projected score78.4pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 246.7
Score range: 54–349
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.5Season APEX204.6

63Auto21.3

180.4Teleop28.5

72.5Endgame24.9

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	36
teleop	210	63
endgame	72	41
foul	0	10
total	348	150

Result

Final score

348 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 pts

Match videos

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