Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.25 – 99.22

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.8 ±12.7

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 73.73Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7190Vancouver Rainstorms

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 11.33Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 110.19Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±13.4

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 30.73Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 59.67Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 8.82Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 610, 7190, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 610, 7190, 9406

Auto

33.3 18%

Teleop

107.4 57%

Endgame

48.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9277, 10120, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9277, 10120, 6364

Auto

11.1 12%

Teleop

74.3 77%

Endgame

11.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195.3pts

Blue projected score99.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96
Score range: 75–219
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 130.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.8Season APEX374.7

33.3Auto11.1

107.4Teleop74.3

48.7Endgame11.1

46Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	31
teleop	164	75
endgame	72	54
foul	5	0
total	279	160

Result

Final score

279 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 pts

Match videos

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