Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

323.94 – 267.12

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.5 ±11

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 139.32Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 39.93Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 144.69Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±11.9

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 136.63Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 25.7Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 104.79Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4421, 5461, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 5461, 3990

Auto

65.1 21%

Teleop

180.8 58%

Endgame

66.6 21%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6766, 6390, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 6390, 4270

Auto

38.1 15%

Teleop

142.9 56%

Endgame

75.4 29%

Strengths

· 6766 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score323.9pts

Blue projected score267.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.8
Score range: 241–350
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.5Season APEX493.7

65.1Auto38.1

180.8Teleop142.9

66.6Endgame75.4

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	20
teleop	130	147
endgame	55	93
foul	10	0
total	219	260

Result

Final score

219 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 56 pts

Match videos

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