Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
275.53 – 206.53
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
216 – 160
Prediction correct · off by 53 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±11.9
Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 139.44Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 28.23Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 107.86Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.8 ±12.7
Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 78.63Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 15.82Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 112.08Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6766, 6390, 4270
80
/ 100 compatProjected
275.5 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 6766, 6390, 4270
Auto
42.0 16%
Teleop
147.9 56%
Endgame
74.8 28%
Strengths
- · 6766 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 610, 7190, 9406
79
/ 100 compatProjected
206.5 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 610, 7190, 9406
Auto
33.1 17%
Teleop
118.7 59%
Endgame
48.1 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.05
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score275.5pts
Blue projected score206.5pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 69
- Score range
- 181–302
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
493.7Season APEX403.8
42Auto33.1
147.9Teleop118.7
74.8Endgame48.1
7Consistency34
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 36 |
| teleop | 113 | 78 |
| endgame | 79 | 41 |
| foul | 10 | 5 |
| total | 216 | 160 |
Result
Final score
216 – 160
Prediction correct · off by 53 pts
Match videos
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