Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

354.38 – 340.79

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

478 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 109.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.3 ±11.9

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 190.94Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX 5.47Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 157.97Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482.5 ±11

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 144.62Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 44.83Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 151.34Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 9180, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 9180, 3683

Auto

76.2 22%

Teleop

195.5 56%

Endgame

78.5 22%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4421, 5461, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 5461, 3990

Auto

66.2 20%

Teleop

196.5 58%

Endgame

73.2 22%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score354.4pts

Blue projected score340.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.6
Score range: 316–379
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 724 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.3Season APEX482.5

76.2Auto66.2

195.5Teleop196.5

78.5Endgame73.2

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	62
teleop	267	105
endgame	92	34
foul	5	45
total	478	246

Result

Final score

478 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 109.2 pts

Match videos

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