Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.27 – 123.59

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±11.9

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 138.77Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 26.99Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 106.51Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±13.4

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 38.46Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 65.87Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 19.26Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6766, 6390, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 6390, 4270

Auto

47.5 18%

Teleop

140.5 54%

Endgame

72.1 28%

Strengths

· 6766 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9277, 10120, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9277, 10120, 6364

Auto

20.4 18%

Teleop

77.0 68%

Endgame

16.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score272.3pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.7
Score range: 99–297
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 139.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.7Season APEX374.7

47.5Auto20.4

140.5Teleop77

72.1Endgame16.3

10Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	191	101
endgame	89	17
foul	5	5
total	302	150

Result

Final score

302 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.