Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.21 – 64.88

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.6 ±16.7

105275-Star

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 7.46Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 53.46Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX 10.29Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146 ±17.1

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 39.71Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8339Penticton Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 44.4Event APEX 7.46Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7190Vancouver Rainstorms

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 17.71Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10527, 6766, 9180

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10527, 6766, 9180

Auto

5.8 8%

Teleop

52.0 73%

Endgame

13.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5461, 8339, 7190

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5461, 8339, 7190

Auto

12.8 20%

Teleop

30.3 48%

Endgame

20.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.2pts

Blue projected score64.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.3
Score range: 48–88
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 97.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.6Season APEX146

5.8Auto12.8

52Teleop30.3

13.4Endgame20.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	11
teleop	99	7
endgame	25	13
foul	0	10
total	143	41

Result

Final score

143 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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