Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.39 – 71.54

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.7 ±16.2

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX -Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 24.86Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7796Breaker Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 71.71Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.2 ±18.4

4862Manning Mountaineers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX -Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 4.86Rank 44Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 50.86Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4421, 10120, 7796

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 10120, 7796

Auto

34.5 32%

Teleop

48.5 45%

Endgame

23.7 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4862, 11302, 9277

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4862, 11302, 9277

Auto

9.9 14%

Teleop

48.2 67%

Endgame

13.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.4pts

Blue projected score71.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.8
Score range: 55–129
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 94.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.7Season APEX234.2

29.7Auto5.1

40.6Teleop40.3

20.6Endgame10.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	6
teleop	121	14
endgame	57	9
foul	0	0
total	194	29

Result

Final score

194 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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