Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.8 – 88.22

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 569.5 ±9.5

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 17.47Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 106.5Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 201.83Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.2 ±18.6

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 35.23Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 41.97Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7796Breaker Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 11.02Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7334, 4270, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7334, 4270, 359

Auto

53.1 17%

Teleop

162.2 52%

Endgame

98.7 31%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8338, 8331, 7796

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8338, 8331, 7796

Auto

22.2 27%

Teleop

28.8 35%

Endgame

31.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score325.8pts

Blue projected score88.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 237.6
Score range: 65–349
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 128.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

569.5Season APEX186.2

53.1Auto22.2

162.2Teleop28.8

98.7Endgame31.7

103Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	33
teleop	151	2
endgame	68	29
foul	0	0
total	311	64

Result

Final score

311 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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