Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.61 – 159.29

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 101 ±20.8

105275-Star

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 20.12Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9550STRIX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 5.6Event APEX -10.65Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11391Hypatia

Provisional

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 6.14Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.3 ±16.2

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 13.94Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 11.11Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 134.24Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10527, 9550, 11391

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10527, 9550, 11391

Auto

7.1 34%

Teleop

3.6 17%

Endgame

10.0 48%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7287, 8790, 4421

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7287, 8790, 4421

Auto

36.3 22%

Teleop

88.7 55%

Endgame

37.3 23%

Strengths

· 4421 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score15.6pts

Blue projected score159.3pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.7
Score range: -7–182
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 128.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

101Season APEX481.3

7.1Auto36.3

3.6Teleop88.7

10Endgame37.3

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	41
teleop	10	125
endgame	4	60
foul	5	5
total	22	231

Result

Final score

22 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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